For a complete list of publications, please see my Curriculum Vitae.
Job Market Paper
This paper examines the constitution of heterogeneity in returns to wealth of U.S. households. Returns are evaluated for the entire household portfolio as well as for five asset classes: risk-free assets, primary and secondary real estate, private businesses, and public equities. There are several original findings. 1) Permanent heterogeneity in returns is observed between households for total household wealth and for all asset classes. 2) Leverage heterogeneity explains the majority of the permanent heterogeneity in the returns to total wealth between U.S. households. 3) Returns to wealth are declining in total household wealth due to lower leverage of wealthy households. 4) Higher values of permanent heterogeneity in returns are associated with higher risk. 5) Heterogeneity in returns not associated with risk arise from entrepreneurial ability and the regressivity of after-tax mortgage rates. These insights hold important implications for the study of portfolio allocation, wealth inequality, social mobility, and corresponding policies.
Coenen, G., C. de Resende, C. Erceg, C. Freedman, D. Furceri, J. in’t Veld, M. Kumhof, R. Lalonde, D. Laxton, J. Linde, A. Mourougane, D. Muir, S. Mursula, J. Roberts, W. Roeger, S. Snudden, and M. Trabant, 2012. “Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 4(1): 22–68.
The paper compares discretionary fiscal stimulus using seven policy and two prominent academic DSGE models. Considerable agreement across models are found on both the absolute and relative sizes of different types of fiscal multipliers. Fiscal policy is most effective if it has moderate persistence and if monetary policy is accommodative. Permanently higher spending or deficits imply significantly lower initial multipliers.
Beaton, K., R. Lalonde, and S. Snudden. 2014. “The Propagation of U.S. Shocks to Canada: Understanding the Role of Real-Financial Linkages.” Canadian Journal of Economics, vol. 47(2): 466-497.
This paper introduces a financial accelerator, inter-bank lending markets, and international bank lending into an international DSGE model. We find that the U.S. banking and interbank markets are an important source of variability. The presence of both the demand and the real supply sides of credit in the model help to capture the stylized facts of both domestic and international business cycles.
Andersen, D., B. Hunt, and S. Snudden. 2014. “Fiscal Consolidation in the Euro Area: How Much Pain can Structural Reforms Ease?” Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 36(5): 785–799.
This paper examines the scope for structural reforms in the euro area to offset the negative effects of fiscal consolidation. The results suggest that structural reforms in core countries could be expected to offset the near-term negative impact on activity arising from the required fiscal consolidation. However, for the periphery, the results suggest that it would take several years before structural reforms could return the level of output back to its pre-consolidation path.
Snudden S., 2016. “Cyclical Fiscal Rules for Oil-Exporting Countries.” Economic Modelling, vol. 59: 473–483.
This paper examines optimal fiscal and monetary policy responses to temporary shocks to the international market for crude oil. Budget-balance tax-gap rules and inflation targeting are the preferred regimes in order to stabilize the macroeconomic volatility and welfare in oil-exporting countries. The output-inflation trade-off is of particular concern for oil exporters relative to non-oil commodity exporters due to the pass through of oil prices into headline inflation.
Snudden S., 2018. “Targeted Growth Rates for Long-Horizon Crude Oil Price Forecasts.” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 34: 1–16.
This paper uses insights from spectral analysis to develop a technique to improve medium- to long-horizon forecast accuracy. The technique is applied to forecast methods of the price of crude oil and found to be able to generate similar precision at 1-5 year horizons that had previously only been found at horizons less than one year.
Snudden S., 2018. “International Remittances, Migration, and Primary Commodities.” The World Economy, vol. 41(11): 2934–2953
This paper documents the global crude oil market as a driver of international migration and remittances. Large oil exporters who are labor importers transit international financial and labor spillovers to oil-importing labor exporters. Despite large financial flows, the remittees’ economic conditions are dominated by the trade and crude oil channels.
Work in Progress
“Return Risk and Partial Consumption Insurance”
This paper compares the marginal propensity to consume out of idiosyncratic asset and labor income and documents how this varies with household wealth and leverage. The results indicate that households utilize assets for temporary earning shocks less than theory would suggest. The results set out a number of features of the data that would need to be replicated for a credible study of wealth dynamics.
“Intergenerational Transmission of Wealth and Risk Preferences”
This paper documents the intergenerational correlation of return heterogeneity and risk preferences. The findings suggest a correlation of persistent heterogeneity in returns to wealth between parents and their offspring due to intergenerational transmission of portfolio and risk preferences.
“Idiosyncratic Wage and Rate of Return Risk”
This paper jointly estimates idiosyncratic risk to wages and earnings of U.S. households. Wage and return risk is found to be correlated for specific asset classes, and the presence of the correlation depends on the wealth and leverage of the household.
“Commodities and Price Level Targeting” (with D. Coletti, R. Lalonde, P. Masson, and D. Muir), revise and resubmit: Journal of Policy Modeling.
This paper examines the relative merits of price level versus inflation targeting in response to international shocks to primary commodity markets. Persistent demand driven crude oil price movements result in significant deterioration of the in inflation-output gap trade-off available to central banks. When such terms-of-trade shocks are prevalent, price level targeting is inferior to inflation targeting.
This paper documents the contagion risk from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries to emerging and developing economies via international financial flows of remittances and migration. The estimates suggest sizeable economic consequences from labor nationalization policies in the GCC and from the shale oil revolution. Policy mitigation strategies are explored.
Duttagupta, R., J, Bluedorn, A. Pescatori, and S. Snudden . “Commodity Price Cycles and Commodity Exporters,” Chapter 4 in the World Economic Outlook, April 2012. International Monetary Fund: Washington D.C.
Anderson, D., M. Badia, E. Ruiz, S. Snudden and F. Vitek, 2015. “Fiscal Consolidation under the SGP: Some Illustrative Simulations,” Chapter 7 in Mechanics of a Strong Euro Area, by M. Pradhan, and P. K. Brooks (eds), International Monetary Fund: Washington D.C.
Klyuev, V. and S. Snudden, 2011. “Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in the Czech Republic.” The Czech Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 61(4): 306-326.
de Resende, C., R. Lalonde, and S. Snudden, “The Power of Many: Assessing the Economic Impact of the Global Fiscal Stimulus,” Bank of Canada Discussion Paper 2010-1.
de Resende, C., K. Beaton, R. Lalonde, and S. Snudden, 2010. “Prospects for Global Current Account Rebalancing,” Bank of Canada Discussion Paper 2010-4.
Andersen, D., B. Hunt, M. Kortelainen, M. Kumhof, D. Laxton, D. Muir, S. Mursula, and S. Snudden, 2013. “Getting to Know GIMF: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model,” IMF Working Paper No. 2013-55.
Andrle, M., P. Blagrave, P. Espaillat, K. Honjo, B. Hunt, M. Kortelainen, R. Lalonde, D. Laxton, E. Mavroeidi, D. Muir, S. Mursula, and S. Snudden, 2015. “The Flexible System of Global Models – FSGM,” IMF Working Paper No. 2015-64.
Snudden S., forthcoming. “Labor and Behavior Determinants of Remittances in Saudi Arabia” Economic Notes, Special issue on Migrant Remittances.
“A Better Way to Forecast Crude Oil Prices,” Economics and Policy Blog, The John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy, Queen’s University, October 24, 2016.
“Oil Exporters Should NOT Price Level Target,” Economics and Policy Blog, The John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy, Queen’s University, March 31, 2017.
“How we decided on 2% fiscal stimulus during the Great Recession,” Economics and Policy Blog, The John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy, Queen’s University, June 21, 2017.