All data packages include detailed documentation files. Please cite the appropriate sources described in the documentation when using this data. Corresponding replication packages of published papers are provided below.
Real-time Crude Oil Data
These data sets are updated monthly using the information available at midnight on the end of each month. Data back to January 1973; vintages from Jan 1991.
- Backcasted end-of-month and monthly average crude oil price series
- Real-time crude oil market data vintages
Real-time Daily Effective Exchange Rates (vintages through Aug 2022)
From McCarthy, M., and S. Snudden, 2024. Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: Insights from Real-Time Daily Data, LCERPA Working Paper 2024-6.
- Real-time monthly vintages of daily effective exchange rates for 160 countries
- Real-time monthly vintages of end-of-month and monthly average effective exchange rates for 79 countries
Monthly Commodity Spot and Futures Data for 17 Primary Commodities (through Dec 2022)
From Farag, M., S. Snudden, and G. Upton (2024). Can Futures Prices Predict the Real Price of Primary Commodities? LCERPA Working Paper 2024-3.
- Monthly average, end-of-month, and mixed-frequency spot prices
- Monthly futures forecasts and contract-aligned panels
Replication Packages
- Benyo, E., R. Ellwanger, and S. Snudden. 2025. A Reappraisal of Real-time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil. Economic Inquiry
- Benmoussa, A., R. Ellwanger, and S. Snudden. 2025. Carpe Diem: Can daily oil prices improve model-based forecasts of the real price of crude oil? International Journal of Forecasting
- Snudden, 2024. Idiosyncratic Asset Return and Wage Risk of US Households. Economic Inquiry, 63(2): 636-657.
- Ellwanger, R. and S. Snudden, 2023. Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil Revisited: Do they Beat the Random Walk? Journal of Banking and Finance, 154(106962): 1-8.
- Ellwanger, R. and S. Snudden, 2023. “Futures Prices are Useful Predictors of the Spot Price of Crude Oil” The Energy Journal, 44(4): 65-82.
- Coenen, G., C. de Resende, C. Erceg, C. Freedman, D. Furceri, J. in’t Veld, M. Kumhof, R. Lalonde, D. Laxton, J. Linde, A. Mourougane, D. Muir, S. Mursula, J. Roberts, W. Roeger, S. Snudden, and M. Trabant, 2012. “Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(1): 22–68.
Stephen Snudden 